CITIC Investment Securities published a "non-ferrous metals industry: copper foil, I am most worried about what?" Industry research articles, the following article specific content:
We participated in the "Seventh China Electronic Copper Foil Technology Market Seminar" on December 2, and recently focused on the copper foil leading enterprises. New energy vehicle policy has not landed, the last two months has been plagued the copper foil market, but this is the most should worry about what?
First, how the status of copper foil industry.
Standard copper foil is seriously short of. According to the CCL data monthly shortage of about 3300 tons, slightly larger than our statistics. There is no doubt that some large CCL plants can not get enough copper to meet the normal production / expansion needs. Lithium copper foil is also insufficient supply. New energy vehicle policy has not yet landed, the downstream business operation is not normal, especially the conversion to meet the "high energy density" requirements, consumption ahead of the "off-season." But the strong demand for consumer electronics, the overall supply is still partial shortage.
Second, the policy disturbance or make the production slow pace.
By the domestic new energy vehicle policy disturbance, investment and large, equipment procurement cycle is too long (prices are soaring), more stringent environmental factors such as the impact of corporate expansion more cautious and rational. Further, Samsung mobile phone and other quality problems, Apple mobile phone manufacturing or will be further to the mainland to migrate, etc., South Korea, Taiwan-funded enterprises expansion relative to the mainland enterprises obviously to be careful.
Third, we must pay attention to the structural requirements of lithium copper foil changes.
1, in order to enhance the "energy density", the use of thinner lithium copper foil is a big trend, do not rule out the possibility of large area spread in 17 years, such as 9μm → 8μm, 8μm → 6μm, higher value Fees have more than 70,000 tons, 8μm, compared with 45,000 / ton), production and supply more difficult (domestic production 6μm enterprises for the Nord, Lingbao). 2, overseas copper foil business expansion is not strong, overseas, such as Tesla, BMW and other new lithium copper demand can not be underestimated, overseas giants turned to the development of the mainland copper enterprises or inevitable.
Fourth, 2017 copper foil (including lithium copper foil and standard copper foil) will be a serious shortage.
2017 copper foil gap is expected to be further expanded, especially lithium copper foil gap or reach 1000 tons / month. Compared to the industry in the prevalence of new energy vehicles policy concerns, we are most worried about all the return to normal, the copper will appear a deeper level of shortage.
Fifth, investment advice: walking in front of the curve, seize the "get on the train" opportunities.
Copper foil company's share price has responded to the negative impact of the new energy vehicles have not landed, with the industry policy gradually clear, the stock will also be steadily uplift. Walk in front of the curve, to seize the "get on the train" opportunity to continue to strongly recommend copper foil leading enterprises, Nordisk shares, Tongling colored.
Risk Warning: New energy vehicle policy has not landed, demand is significantly lower than expected, and corporate expansion than expected risk